Just 60 days ago when the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. When the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six games, find themselves just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard question to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
According to the data, in only two games has the side registered an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem strangely fragile – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their star man to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents had more shots and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder now would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential England player.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
