A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
